As to our discussion this morning, Keith Law at ESPN says Aroldis Chapman is basically ready.
Posted by
TFox
Mar 9 '10, 10:58
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I got my first live look at Aroldis Chapman on Monday in a game in Goodyear, Ariz., that was attended by a few hundred other people -- probably not what the city of Goodyear had in mind when they paid for the stadium -- and I have a two-word scouting report: That'll work.
Chapman pitched mostly at 94-96 mph, but touched 98 with the fastball, and was as low as 91. He located the pitch pretty well, especially considering the velocity. His slider was absolutely toxic at 87-90 mph with tilt and an incredibly sharp break -- it's the velocity of an average fastball for a left-hander with the movement of a plus breaking pitch. It's slider-like against lefties but also displayed the depth of a curveball on one pitch when he raised his arm slot against a right-handed hitter. He threw one changeup at 80 mph that had some fading action, although I imagine that a hitter geared up for 96 is going to swing about an hour early at a Chapman change.
What really jumps out about Chapman isn't that he touches 98 with his fastball -- while not common, it's certainly not unheard-of -- but that he does it so easily.
There are big league starters who look like they're playing catch when they pitch, like Livan Hernandez; there are almost no big league pitchers who look like they're playing catch at 96 or 98 mph. But Chapman does. His arm is loose and quick, and he makes a relatively easy thrower like Steven Strasburg look high-effort by comparison.
In terms of mechanics, Chapman takes an enormous stride toward the plate and pronates his arm reasonably early; the arm path isn't long and there's no violence or other major red flags in the delivery. If he stays healthy, he's a No. 1 starter, and should be able to come north with the Reds in some role this year if they want him on the big league roster.
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