I agree with your IM, but I think too few people have seen Slumdog, Milk, and Nixon to get them enough votes.
Revolutionary Road could make an impact but I feel like it's too stagey without a hook. It's this year's Little Children - good for other nominations but not quite Picture. Now that I look at No Country, Crash, Departed, they seem to be films that have a sense of danger or action to them even if they aren't big war films like Gladiator and Braveheart were.