ST Alpha - "STIS: THis is a math question (NOT excel). An event happens twice, each time with a probability of resulting damage. I need to calculate " (Reading a Post)

SlickerTalk
Search Archives
The Leaderboard
The FAQ

Down to Post

Backboards:

Posts: 158

STIS: THis is a math question (NOT excel). An event happens twice, each time with a probability of resulting damage. I need to calculate

Posted by loosilu (aka loosilu2) Dec 8 '10, 08:59

the probability of a given end state. The damage is, of course, irreversible, so something can't be damaged the first time but be fine the next time.

THis is some sort of coin toss problem, right? I don't think I can multiply the probabilities. I have to add them up somehow, right?

Responses:

You have to apply the second probability only to the percentage of times it wasn't damaged in step one. - TFox Dec 8, 09:02 26
- Okay, now you can go back to being a dick. - Will Hunting Dec 8, 09:05 8
  - Maybe he was still being a dick, and it just flew over our heads because it was so well-disguised? (this would amuse me.) -- nm - Beryllium Dec 8, 09:06 7
    - he was very helpful and not at all dickish. -- nm - loosilu Dec 8, 09:07 6
      - which, for the record, is exactly how the last time went too. but i don't care to rehash that, except to respond to your ps warning. -- nm - TFox Dec 8, 09:11 4
        
        since I am tired of this, I would like to apologize for last time. -- nm - loosilu Dec 8, 09:12 3
        
        just because you're tired of it, and so tired of it that you brought it up? well then, thank you for apologizing. -- nm - TFox Dec 8, 09:15 2
        
        it's a sincere apology for being a jerk when you were helping me. -- nm - loosilu Dec 8, 09:19 1
        
        well then thank you, sincerely. -- nm - TFox Dec 8, 09:20
      - oh, yes, I know. I just meant if there was some subtle math bug that made hours of extra work or something. :) -- nm - Beryllium Dec 8, 09:07
- I've only taken one stats course ... but this sounds correct, I think -- nm - Beryllium Dec 8, 09:05
- ok, nice. further queston: The outcome is not binomial, there are 5 possible damage states from "none" to "complete". - loosilu Dec 8, 09:04 14
  - same idea, you only pull out the completes. assigning a damage percentage to the twice hits is something you'll have to decide. - TFox Dec 8, 09:14 5
    - ok, I think I will try stacking them first. thanks again. -- nm - loosilu Dec 8, 09:15 4
      - (you could actually make an argument that a partially damaged site would have its damage rate increased if hit a second time, but up to you.) -- nm - TFox Dec 8, 09:17 3
        
        that would be logical, but I can't arbitrarily change damage probabilities. If I were running hte actual heavy duty model, I would do that. - loosilu Dec 8, 09:18 2
        
        not the probability of damage, the extent of the damage. but i agree, its probably too much refinement. -- nm - TFox Dec 8, 09:19 1
        
        I think it would change both. In either case, it's beyond my silicon power. -- nm - loosilu Dec 8, 09:20
  - This sounds like a solution I would normally tackle using the power of computer science. -- nm - Beryllium Dec 8, 09:05 7
    - I'll get there eventually. :) just need to work out the strategy first. -- nm - loosilu Dec 8, 09:06 6
      - "establish an algorithm using pseudocode" :) -- nm - Beryllium Dec 8, 09:06 5
        
        or, elaborate on my existing bullshit pseudocode. -- nm - loosilu Dec 8, 09:07 4
        
        Or, construct an N-dimensional array of all possible outcomes. :) -- nm - Beryllium Dec 8, 09:08 3
        
        I think a bag of black and white marbles will work better. - loosilu Dec 8, 09:12 2
        
        well, in your case, it sounds like you want several shades of marble. - Beryllium Dec 8, 09:16 1
        
        the bag has to be influenced by the previous pick. yeah, it's not the right model. oh well. -- nm - loosilu Dec 8, 09:16
- this makes sense to me -- nm - Beaker Dec 8, 09:03
Wouldn't you just add them? - Will Hunting Dec 8, 09:02
Is the probably the same for both events? -- nm - ceregon Dec 8, 09:02 2
- different each time. Yes, earthquake with aftershock. -- nm - loosilu Dec 8, 09:02 1
  - Formula - ceregon Dec 8, 09:04
so is this an earthquake followed by an aftershock type thing? -- nm - Beaker Dec 8, 09:01
ps. TFox, don't be a dick. -- nm - loosilu Dec 8, 09:00

Post a message top

STIS: THis is a math question (NOT excel). An event happens twice, each time with a probability of resulting damage. I need to calculate

Replies are disabled on threads older than 7 days.