ST Alpha - "You have to apply the second probability only to the percentage of times it wasn't damaged in step one." (Reading a Post)

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In response to "STIS: THis is a math question (NOT excel). An event happens twice, each time with a probability of resulting damage. I need to calculate " by loosilu

You have to apply the second probability only to the percentage of times it wasn't damaged in step one.

Posted by TFox Dec 8 '10, 09:02

so if there is a 30% chance of damage in step 1, but a 60% chance of damage in step two, you go:

Step 1: 30% damage

Step 2: 30% damage + 60% damage to remaining 70% = 30% + 42% = 72% damage rate.

Responses:

Okay, now you can go back to being a dick. - Will Hunting Dec 8, 09:05 8
- Maybe he was still being a dick, and it just flew over our heads because it was so well-disguised? (this would amuse me.) -- nm - Beryllium Dec 8, 09:06 7
  - he was very helpful and not at all dickish. -- nm - loosilu Dec 8, 09:07 6
    - which, for the record, is exactly how the last time went too. but i don't care to rehash that, except to respond to your ps warning. -- nm - TFox Dec 8, 09:11 4
      - since I am tired of this, I would like to apologize for last time. -- nm - loosilu Dec 8, 09:12 3
        
        just because you're tired of it, and so tired of it that you brought it up? well then, thank you for apologizing. -- nm - TFox Dec 8, 09:15 2
        
        it's a sincere apology for being a jerk when you were helping me. -- nm - loosilu Dec 8, 09:19 1
        
        well then thank you, sincerely. -- nm - TFox Dec 8, 09:20
    - oh, yes, I know. I just meant if there was some subtle math bug that made hours of extra work or something. :) -- nm - Beryllium Dec 8, 09:07
I've only taken one stats course ... but this sounds correct, I think -- nm - Beryllium Dec 8, 09:05
ok, nice. further queston: The outcome is not binomial, there are 5 possible damage states from "none" to "complete". - loosilu Dec 8, 09:04 14
- same idea, you only pull out the completes. assigning a damage percentage to the twice hits is something you'll have to decide. - TFox Dec 8, 09:14 5
  - ok, I think I will try stacking them first. thanks again. -- nm - loosilu Dec 8, 09:15 4
    - (you could actually make an argument that a partially damaged site would have its damage rate increased if hit a second time, but up to you.) -- nm - TFox Dec 8, 09:17 3
      - that would be logical, but I can't arbitrarily change damage probabilities. If I were running hte actual heavy duty model, I would do that. - loosilu Dec 8, 09:18 2
        
        not the probability of damage, the extent of the damage. but i agree, its probably too much refinement. -- nm - TFox Dec 8, 09:19 1
        
        I think it would change both. In either case, it's beyond my silicon power. -- nm - loosilu Dec 8, 09:20
- This sounds like a solution I would normally tackle using the power of computer science. -- nm - Beryllium Dec 8, 09:05 7
  - I'll get there eventually. :) just need to work out the strategy first. -- nm - loosilu Dec 8, 09:06 6
    - "establish an algorithm using pseudocode" :) -- nm - Beryllium Dec 8, 09:06 5
      - or, elaborate on my existing bullshit pseudocode. -- nm - loosilu Dec 8, 09:07 4
        
        Or, construct an N-dimensional array of all possible outcomes. :) -- nm - Beryllium Dec 8, 09:08 3
        
        I think a bag of black and white marbles will work better. - loosilu Dec 8, 09:12 2
        
        well, in your case, it sounds like you want several shades of marble. - Beryllium Dec 8, 09:16 1
        
        the bag has to be influenced by the previous pick. yeah, it's not the right model. oh well. -- nm - loosilu Dec 8, 09:16
this makes sense to me -- nm - Beaker Dec 8, 09:03

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You have to apply the second probability only to the percentage of times it wasn't damaged in step one.

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