AFC
1. New England (currently 11-2, projected 13-3) - GB, @Buf, Mia - Have to think that they don't lose more than one down the stretch. How they do against Green Bay on Sunday will determine how long starters play in Week 17, which could have implications.
2. Pittsburgh (10-2, 12-4) - NYJ, Car, @Cle - I gave them a loss, though they could easily run this table. Pats have tie-breaker.
3. Indy (7-6, 10-6) - Jax, @Oak, Ten - Bit of a out on a limb call here considering their recent play, but with extra days to prepare for the Jax home game, their toughest win of this stretch is the road trip to Oak, a very losable game for them. That said, they need to run the table to make playoffs and I wouldn't bet against them. Rather be wrong on predicting them in instead of out.
4. Kansas City (8-5, 10-6) - @St.L, Ten, Oak - Hate to project this team in, but even with Cassel out next week against the Rams, I think the Chiefs will bear down and win the final two at home to put themselves in. Their tie-breaker with San Diego is muddy though. I might have projected them wrong on who has the edge.
5. & 6. - Wide open amongst three teams you expect will finish around 10-6 (Jets, Chargers, Ravens) and one surprise team that has the schedule to sneak in the back door with a few breaks (Miami, who has home games against Buffalo, Detroit to set up a potential "starters sit the 2nd half" situation for their @New England in Week 17.
Were I to rank in order of likelihood, I'd have it Jets, who need one (@Pitts, @Chi, Buf), Ravens, who need to win two (NO, @Cle, Cin), San Diego (win out SF on Thursday, @Cin, @Denver) and then finally, that potential sneaky Miami.
Everyone else in the AFC is playing for next year.
NFC
1. Atlanta (11-2, 14-2) - @Sea, NO, Car - It might change if NO can win in Atlanta during MNF Christmas weekend, but let's assume that the Falcons continue to dominate at home. Seattle's actually a good test going cross-country and into a home-field stadium advantage, however, they should prevail.
2. Chicago (9-4, 11-5) - Min (Neutral), NYJ, @GB - I gave them next week's neutral site game and one of the Jets and Packers. 10-6 might get Green Bay into play should they lose two of three, especially the Week 17 game.
3. Philly (9-4, 11-5) - @NYG, Min, Dal - There's two games here. That should be enough to hold off the Giants, even if the Giants win next week to pull ahead.
4. St. Louis (6-7, 8-8) - See NFC West Below
5. New Orleans (10-3, 11-5) - One team needs to limp into the playoffs and with their schedule, the Saints fit the bill. Gotta like them in Round One though.
6. Three Options...
Tampa Bay (8-5) have the schedule to get to 10-6. Two home games against Detroit and Seattle (west coast playing at 1:00pm EST). Even if they stink in their last away game in New Orleans (and the Saints have been upset at home more than once), that gets them in.
The Giants (8-4) have a tough schedule (Minny tonight after a hellish travel weekend, Philly next week, @GB, then @Was to close the season). I'd give them 3-1 if they were more consistent, however they've been only 3-2 since their bye, making them a good 2-2 candidate to muddle into the wild card.
Finally, the Packers (8-5) did themselves in yesterday. Not an easy finishing schedule, so finding two games isn't a given. @New England, NYG, Chi. They can help themselves by winning at home against the Giants. And if they get really lucky, the Week 17 home game might even decide the division, but right now, I think they have the longest shot.
NFC West
St. Louis (6-7) KC, SF, @Sea - There's probably two wins here.....Probably.
San Fran (5-8) @SD, @StL, Ari - The two toughest are on the road. Might only be one win here.
Seattle (6-7) Atl, @TB, StL - Only one win there, and even then, the Rams have better potential to show the hunger in Week 17.
Arizona (4-9) @Car, Dal (Christmas), @SF - If they were 5-8, I'd actually really like their chances to sneak in. Can't see it no
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