ST Alpha - "that's... not entirely accurate. just because it hasn't had an earthquake in a while doesn't mean it's somehow overdue, or that the next one will be " (Reading a Post)

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In response to "Yep. It hasn't let off energy in so long that when it does....." by the liioulu with those hershey kiss flag things

that's... not entirely accurate. just because it hasn't had an earthquake in a while doesn't mean it's somehow overdue, or that the next one will be

Posted by mafic Jan 14 '11, 16:51

in any way significant.

Responses:

The plates build up pressure over time. -- nm - Bacon Jan 14, 16:54 1
- they can, but there's nothing to say the release will be at that fault,, in that area, or even anything more than gradual and unnoticable if it is. -- nm - mafic Jan 14, 17:10
this is a lie! it's like a slot machine. It's due! -- nm - Beryllium Jan 14, 16:53
It's not over due because it hasn't let of energy. It's overdue because it's off schedule. - the liioulu with those hershey kiss flag things Jan 14, 16:53 21
- I know. it's not like old faithful, you can't say that just because there hasn't been an earthquake in x years you're due for one. -- nm - mafic Jan 14, 16:59 7
  - More like centuries. Or was it millenia? -- nm - the liioulu with those hershey kiss flag things Jan 14, 17:01
  - You can increase the odds of one happening -- nm - Bacon Jan 14, 17:00 5
    - but saying you're due or overdue is misinterpreting the statistics. -- nm - mafic Jan 14, 17:05
    - you guys do realize you're arguing with a geologist, right? -- nm - loosilu Jan 14, 17:05 3
      - I am not geologist. ;) -- nm - the liioulu with those hershey kiss flag things Jan 14, 17:06 2
        
        Oohhh, mafic is a geologist? -- nm - the liioulu with those hershey kiss flag things Jan 14, 17:16 1
        
        yep, look up what "mafic" means. -- nm - loosilu Jan 14, 17:17
- Fault lines don't have "schedules". They are constantly letting off energy in miniscule EQs that we never feel. - musubi Jan 14, 16:56 12
  - but they get stuck -- nm - Bacon Jan 14, 16:59
  - The Madrid Fault is related to the Caldera. It's off schedule. -- nm - the liioulu with those hershey kiss flag things Jan 14, 16:59 9
    - That's not how it works, but hey, if that makes you feel better, knock yourself out. (nm) - musubi Jan 14, 17:06 6
      - By about 40,000 years. - the liioulu with those hershey kiss flag things Jan 14, 17:10 5
        
        again, not how these things work. we're not overdue because the supervolcano is taking longer than last time. it's just taking longer. -- nm - mafic Jan 14, 17:12 4
        
        Either way it doesn't change that if goes, the fault or Caldera, it could be at a very high level. - the liioulu with those hershey kiss flag things Jan 14, 17:19
        
        Supervolcano? -- nm - the liioulu with those hershey kiss flag things Jan 14, 17:14 2
        
        I figured that's what you meant when you started talking about a caldera, but the point still stands. - mafic Jan 14, 17:17 1
        
        It also doesn't mean they aren't either. - the liioulu with those hershey kiss flag things Jan 14, 17:23
    - is that the one in the midwest? -- nm - zeitgeist Jan 14, 17:01 1
      - Madrid is. -- nm - the liioulu with those hershey kiss flag things Jan 14, 17:05
  - but what this board presupposes is.... what if they did? -- nm - TFox Jan 14, 16:58

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that's... not entirely accurate. just because it hasn't had an earthquake in a while doesn't mean it's somehow overdue, or that the next one will be

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