what drought in china means for politics in egypt...
Posted by
x (aka dmuck)
Feb 11 '11, 04:50
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"If you�re trying to project Egypt�s political crisis then it makes a lot of sense to be focusing on events in Cairo. But not always.
The UN�s Food and Agricultural Organization released a report earlier this week as part of its early warning system. It noted that a severe winter drought in North China might put the country�s winter wheat production at risk.
Drought in China is bad news for politics in Egypt. How so? China is the world�s largest wheat producer, accounting for 17% of global production. It typically produces just enough to supply its own domestic consumption.
Yet, there are occasions when China has had to turn to the global market, such as after a drought. In these instances, its imports soar and push global wheat prices sharply higher. We haven�t seen that for a while because officials have made serious efforts to build up wheat stocks since 2004.
But China�s water shortages are a growing challenge, whether because of climate change or the rising industrial consumption of water.
That�s bad news for Egypt, because the country is the world�s largest wheat importer, accounting for near 10% of the world�s total imports. If China has to import wheat from the global market, such as because of a drought, then Egypt�s bread prices will rise.
Bread prices hurt Egypt�s poor hardest. So observers of Egypt�s political crisis might want to also keep an eye on China�s weather.
Indeed, it�s not just Egypt that suffers. The Middle East and North Africa accounts for 33% of the world�s wheat imports and would be equally affected if China was to suffer repeated poor harvests in the coming years."
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